National Weather Service Forecast for: Waynesville, NC Issued by: National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg/Greer, SC

Updated: 05/17/2025 10:37am EDT

Waynesville, NC

This Afternoon Sunny Sunday Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms Monday Chance Showers And T-Storms Tuesday Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms then Chance Showers And T-Storms Wednesday Showers And T-Storms Thursday Chance Rain Showers Friday Slight Chance Rain Showers   Hi 78 °F Hi 78 °F Hi 78 °F Hi 80 °F Hi 74 °F Hi 63 °F Hi 66 °F     Tonight Mostly Clear Sunday Night Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms then Partly Cloudy Monday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms Tuesday Night Showers And T-Storms Likely Wednesday Night Showers And T-Storms Likely Thursday Night Chance Rain Showers Friday Night Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Clear   Lo 57 °F Lo 57 °F Lo 60 °F Lo 61 °F Lo 50 °F Lo 44 °F Lo 46 °F

 

This Afternoon	Sunny, with a high near 78. West northwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight	Mostly clear, with a low around 57. West northwest wind 5 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday	A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. West northwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday Night	A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. West northwest wind 1 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday	A chance of rain showers between 8am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 4pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 1 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night	A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 4am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday	A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night	Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday	Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday Night	Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday	A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night	A chance of rain showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday	A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.
Friday Night	A slight chance of rain showers before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Waynesville, NC.

NWS Area Forecast Discussion

 

492
FXUS62 KGSP 171449
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1049 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A line of strong to severe storms cross the area through mid-
morning, with dry conditions returning this afternoon. A front
stalls in the vicinity of the area early next week, keeping an
active pattern around. Warm temperatures stick around through early
next week before cooler temperatures return later on.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1) Much quieter convective weather through tonight.

2) WSW winds increase this afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph
expected across much of the area.

2) Daytime temperatures above normal today.

As of 1035 am: Other than lingering sprinkles and -RA around the
periphery of the CWA, convective activity has cleared the area, with
lower theta-E air filtering in behind large scale cold pool/outflow
boundary. With low amplitude upper trough axis nudging into the
region throughout the day, considerable mid-level drying is
expected, and some of this is forecast to mix down to the surface
this afternoon as mixing heights extend to over 5kft. The latest
visible satellite imagery depicts steady clearing of low and the
bulk of mid-level clouds is underway...and temps should have no
problem warming to the forecast mid/upper 80s under mostly sunny
conditions this afternoon. With the deep mixing developing, gusty
WSW winds are expected by mid-afternoon. With as much as 30 kts
expected at the top of the mixed layer, gusts in the 25-30 mph range
should be realized except in locations sheltered from SW flow. With
dewpoints mixing out to the 50s and lower 60s across much of the
area by late afternoon...and the steep mid-level lapse rates
shunting south and east of the area ahead of the trough...little in
the way of appreciable instability is anticipated this afternoon
despite the very warm conditions. Still wouldn`t rule out a brief
shower popping up here or there...especially in the Piedmont, but
chances for measurable precip are less than 20% everywhere.
Tonight`s lows will be 55-60 in most mountainous locations, and in
the lower/mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Return Sunday Across the Western
Zones with Better Coverage Expected on Monday

2) Severe Weather Potential will be Low on Tuesday but Chances
Increase Slightly on Monday

3) Warm and Above Normal Temperatures Stick Around

Upper-level flow will start out quasi-zonal the first half of Sunday
before weak upper ridging builds across the Southeast Sunday evening
into Monday night. At the sfc, a stationary front will stall over
the forecast area throughout the short term. This front combined
with embedded shortwaves tracking over the CWA each day will keep
unsettled weather around through the period. Highs each afternoon
will end up ~4-6 degrees above normal with lows each night ending up
~8-10 degrees above normal.

Both high-res and global model guidance generally agree that the
western half of the CWA will have the best chance to see showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday. With activity expected to remain scattered
at best, capped PoPs to chance (15% to 30%) across the western
zones. With a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE developing Sunday
afternoon/early evening across the western zones and 40-50 kts of
deep layer shear in place, isolated strong to severe storms are
possible. However, confidence on the severe threat for Sunday is low
as CAMs depict the strongest activity tracking across the Deep South
rather than the NE GA and the western Carolinas.

Global model guidance continues to show better coverage of showers
and thunderstorms, as well as better instability, on Monday. Thus,
have likely (60%) PoPs across the mountains with chance PoPs (20% to
50%) elsewhere. Also have most locations seeing the potential for
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening hours.
With 40-50 kts of deep layer shear and SBCAPE ranging from 1,000-
1,500 J/kg during peak heating on Monday, a few strong to severe
storms are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue through the Long Term
with the Best Coverage Currently Expected on Wednesday

2) Strong to Severe Storms are Possible on Both Tuesday and Wednesday

3) Above Normal Temperatures Linger through Tuesday Night Before
Cooler and Below Normal Temperatures Return Mid to Late Week

Upper ridging remains in place over the Southeast through Tuesday
night before an upper low tracks eastward out of the Midwest into
the Northeast Wednesday into Friday. At the sfc, the aforementioned
front in the short term will remain stalled over the CWA on Tuesday
before a sfc low pressure system tracks east across the Lower
Midwest/OH Valley on Wednesday and across the Northeast Thursday
into Friday. Thus, unsettled weather will continue through at least
Thursday before drier conditions return for most locations on
Friday. Warm and above normal temperatures will continue through
Tuesday night before cooler and near normal temperatures develop
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Even cooler and below normal
temperatures return Thursday into Friday behind the low pressure
system.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase
through Wednesday ahead of the low pressure system so have likely
PoPs (60%) across the mountains and chance PoPs elsewhere on Tuesday
(20% to 50%) and likely to categorical PoPs (60% to 70%) on
Wednesday. Strong to severe storms will be possible again on both
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the severe potential looks better on
Tuesday thanks to 40-50 kts of deep layer shear remaining in place
as well as 1,500-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE developing during peak
heating. Although deep layer shear will increase to 50-60 kts on
Wednesday, SBCAPE will be slightly lower, ranging from 1,000-1,500
J/kg, and may only develop east of the NC mountains. Thus,
confidence on strong to severe storms on Wednesday is lower compared
to Tuesday.

The sfc low will lift northeast of the CWA Wednesday night into
Friday allowing a more stable airmass to filter into the region so
thunder is not expected on Thursday or Friday. Model guidance is
still not in agreement regarding when moisture will push east of the
forecast area. The latest GFS shows dry conditions developing from
west to east Wednesday night into daybreak Thursday while the latest
ECMWF shows precip lingering across mainly the northern half of the
area on Thursday. Thus, capped PoPs to chance (25% to 50%) across
the northern zones and slight chance (15% to 20%) across the
southern zones Thursday. Some NW flow rain showers may linger over
the NC mountains Thursday night into Friday so maintained chance
PoPs (30% or lower) across these zones for now.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A line of showers and TSRA crosses all sites
this morning before 13z. For this, a TEMPO at KCLT through 13z. Will
prevail VCTS/VCSH are all other sites given the weakening of the
line and timing of its` exit. Lingering SHRA this morning behind the
line likely through at least 15z. Expect VRB winds and brief vsby
restrictions with the storms. These storms should be out of the area
later this morning, leaving gusty winds in its wake. Winds stay W/SW
everywhere expect at KAVL where brief WNW winds arrive before
turning SW. Expect 15-25kt gusts at all sites through most of the
TAF period, until winds diminish late tonight.

Outlook: Thunderstorm chances return Sunday and continue through the
middle of next week. Early morning fog/low stratus possible in the
mountain valleys and locations where rain fell the previous
afternoon/evening.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JDL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CP

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion