| National Weather Service Forecast for:
Waynesville, NC Issued by: National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg/Greer, SC |
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| Updated: 11/21/2024 12:33am EST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Waynesville, NC | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Winter Weather Advisory
Wind Advisory
| Overnight |
Clear, with a low around 29. West northwest wind around 8 mph. |
| Thursday |
Sunny, with a high near 43. West northwest wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. |
| Thursday Night |
A chance of snow showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. West northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible. |
| Friday |
A chance of snow showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind around 12 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible. |
| Friday Night |
A slight chance of snow showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
| Saturday |
Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. |
| Saturday Night |
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. |
| Sunday |
Sunny, with a high near 63. |
| Sunday Night |
Mostly clear, with a low around 38. |
| Monday |
A slight chance of rain showers after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. |
| Monday Night |
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
| Tuesday |
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
| Tuesday Night |
A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. |
| Wednesday |
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Waynesville, NC.
NWS Area Forecast Discussion |
392
FXUS62 KGSP 210558
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1258 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves off the Carolina coast on Thursday as cold high
pressure brings below normal temperatures through the start of the
weekend. Light snow will fall mainly along the Tennessee border
Thursday night into Friday. There will be a warming trend beginning
late in the weekend through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1225 AM EST Thursday...Sky has cleared across the region
with the front well to our east, but wind remains strong and gusty
across the mountains/Escarpment region. No need to make any changes
in that regard just yet. Temps were running a bit warmer and dewpt
a bit drier still, so some adjustments were made on that end.
Otherwise, lows tonight will end up around normal area-wide thanks
to great radiational cooling conditions. CAA behind the front will
allow lows to dip down into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the
mountains and the mid 30s to lower 40s elsewhere.
Below normal temps return Thursday behind the cold front, with highs
near or below freezing expected along the NC/TN border and across
the higher elevations of the NC mountains. Highs elsewhere will
range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Dry and mostly sunny conditions
will continue for most of the forecast area on Thursday, but NW
flow will allow cloud cover and snow showers to develop Thursday
afternoon along the NC/TN border. Temps near or below freezing where
snow falls will allow for some light accums towards the end of the
near term. NW flow snow showers will continue into the short term
with additional snowfall accums expected so in collaboration with
neighboring WFOs, opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory starting
Thursday afternoon for the northern North Carolina mountains and
the higher elevations of Haywood and Swain Counties. The Advisory
will continue through the short term (more information can be found
in the short term discussion below). Wind speeds will gradually
increase again east of the mountains throughout the day Thursday
becoming gusty again while winds remain elevated across the
mountains. At this time it looks like the pressure gradient will
relax some over the mountains so gusts should generally remain
below advisory criteria area-wide on Thursday. Gusty winds and
drier air will allow minimum RH values to fall into the upper 20s
to lower 30s east of the mountains Thursday afternoon. However,
recent rainfall should limit any fire wx concerns.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wed: As upper low moves to the Mid-Atlantic
coast Thursday night, vort lobe will swing across the southern
Appalachians. Temp profiles will already be cold enough for snow
in the NW Flow precip zone along the TN/NC border, with brisk NW
winds already occurring across the mountains. Moisture will extend
well into ice nucleation temperatures on the upslope side, less so
east of the spine, but still sufficient to expect better than 10:1
snow ratios. There still should be at least a marginal connection
to the Great Lakes. Some warming does look to occur during the
day Friday with slow height rises occurring as the upper low moves
further east; moisture also may become more shallow and limit the
production of nuclei, although sfc temps will remain near or below
freezing thru the day at mid to high elevations. Snow rates will
thus diminish, but rime icing could continue.
Altogether think the majority of zones from Madison north to
Yancey will see 2" of accumulation mainly Thursday night and
Friday morning, with totals closer to 4" in high elevations, with
isolated amounts up to 6". A Winter Wx Advisory is being issued for
all elevations in these zones from 18z Thursday to 12z Saturday,
the long duration mainly for the expectation travel issues will
continue. Further south toward the Smokies accumulations appear
likely to remain in the higher elevations and the Advisory is
being confined to areas above 3500 ft. Can`t rule out later upgrade
to Warning in high elevations of all of these zones, but for now
confidence level is mainly supportive of an Advisory.
Temps will remain considerably below normal across the CWA
on Friday, overall similar to if not slightly colder than
Thursday. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph very well may continue in some
higher elevations Thursday night into Friday morning. Another
Wind Advisory could be needed, and/or the one for tonight could
be extended through that timeframe.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday: Flat, quasi-zonal pattern aloft will
persist through the extended period. Temperatures will rebound
slowly - with highs remaining in the 50s through Sunday, and likely
climbing back into the 60s by Monday and beyond. GEFS ensemble
solutions tend to develop a low pressure system over the Ozarks by
Tuesday afternoon, inciting at least weak WAA / isentropic ascent by
mid-week. This feature is displaced well to the north - think upper
Midwest - in GEPS solutions, while in ENS solutions it`s missing
entirely. So, not much confidence on how things will play out past
Monday, but there seems to be potential for more active weather
after a nice dry weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the period,
with sky clear and no restrictions. That leaves us with a gusty NW
wind overnight that slowly diminishes outside the mtns but remains
strong over the ridgetops. Guidance indicates the development of a
lee trof early in the day, such that east of the mtns the direction
should come around to WSW shortly after daybreak if not before. Deep
mixing will permit frequent gusts through the better part of the
day. Wind should diminish and we lose the gusts around sunset.
Outlook: VFR outside of the mountains through Monday. Gusty W/NW
winds may linger through Friday. KAVL may see some low VFR or MVFR
cigs as moisture pushes up the valley through Friday night with
VFR returning through Monday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for NCZ033-049-
050-052-053-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Saturday for NCZ033-048>052.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...PM