National Weather Service Forecast for:
Waynesville, NC Issued by: National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg/Greer, SC |
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Updated: 03/30/2025 6:31pm EDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Waynesville, NC | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Tonight |
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible. |
Monday |
Rain showers likely before 9am, then rain showers likely and patchy fog between 9am and 11am, then showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 69. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. |
Monday Night |
Rain showers likely before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. West northwest wind 2 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Tuesday |
Sunny, with a high near 72. West northwest wind around 3 mph. |
Tuesday Night |
A slight chance of rain showers after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. South southeast wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Wednesday |
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Wednesday Night |
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Thursday |
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Thursday Night |
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Friday |
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Friday Night |
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Saturday |
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Saturday Night |
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Sunday |
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Waynesville, NC.
NWS Area Forecast Discussion |
840 FXUS62 KGSP 310021 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 821 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm chances through tonight into Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. A few of these storms could be severe. Dry high pressure returns Tuesday, resulting in well above normal temperatures across the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 7:15 PM EDT Sunday: A fairly broad area of moderate to heavy sct showers is currently moving NE across most of our non-mtn zones. We`ve seen a handful of lightning strikes from this activity over the Upstate over the past few hrs, but with instability fizzling going forward, we`ll likely only see showers for the rest of tonight/ overnight. Otherwise, most of this precip activity should move east of our CWA over the next few hrs as the plume of deeper moisture moves further east. Any lingering shower production will likely retreat to the southerly upslope areas near the Escarpment while the convection associated with the approaching cold front remains to our west. Hope- fully the areas around the active fires will see some additional showers thru the rest of the evening. Which brings us to Monday. On the synoptic scale, the forcing looks adequate and moisture deep enough to warrant precip probs ramping up into the categorical range into the afternoon. However, that is met with resistance in the CAM guidance, particularly the HRRR, which treats the convection with neglect and prejudice. Quite disheartening to see the HRRR essentially washing out the pre-frontal convection as it reaches the mtns in the early morning. But, like we said above, the forcing will be there, so the probs will be kept high and perhaps the other CAMs that show the better coverage will be more correct. As to the severe potential, the 12Z run of the HREF looks relatively unimpressive and uninspired. The better organization of storms dives to the south in the morning, as was always suspected, leaving us in the western Carolinas to wonder if storms will redevelop. The RAP manages still to develop sfc-based CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg and shear 30-40kt, so there remains some potential for severe storms, but the CAMs do not respond to the extent that one might have expected. We will monitor later developments, but for now, the better chances appear to be east and south. The activity should exit to the east late in the day. Temps will remain above normal by about ten degrees. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: 1) Dry weather returns Tuesday with rain chances possible by midweek. 2) Above normal temperatures Thursday. As of 155 PM Sunday: The cold front continues to move through the area and should be crossing the CWA Monday night. After the FROPA, high pressure returns and shunts rain chances on Tuesday. The general synoptic flow turns more quasi-zonal into mid week before a trough builds in across the Rockies and an amplifying ridge moves in from the south. Previous forecasts had an area of low pressure forming over the central CONUS and lifting northward, trailing a cold front across the area. However, recent guidance from the GFS/EURO both show a stout ridge expanding and persisting over the area from about midweek onward. This is trending rainfall potential even drier as the area of better lift/convergence is now off the NW of the CWA. This does lower QPF response and PoPs down into the slight chance range as confidence is decreasing for rain potential. These height rises could shunt precip chances and bring temperatures well above normal through the short term and into the next. One positive note is southerly winds return Wednesday night and advect more moisture, keeping RH values well above any critical levels. Tuesday looks to be the driest day with RH values in the 25%-35% range, but improving onward. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages 1) The forecast has trended drier, as a strong ridge builds across the Southeast 2) Temperatures warm to well above normal through the period. As of 200 PM Sunday: As was the case in the short term, guidance from the GFS/EURO continue to trend toward an amplifying ridge over the southeast through most of the forecast period. Southerly flow remains dominate during the time, so moisture remains in the area. The ridge axis pushes west a bit, shunting once again most of the better precipitation chances off to the north. By Day 7, models hint at the ridge starting to weaken, bringing back rain chances, but this is highly uncertain since it`s a week away. Overall, guidance continues to trend drier for the area, keeping needed rainfall away once again. Given the moisture in the region, won`t rule out a few scattered showers, so will keep slight chance PoPs for most of the extended. Additionally, confidence is increasing that the area could have temperatures in the upper 80s toward the end of the forecast period depending on the strength of the building ridge. Overall, expect well-above normal temperatures and little rainfall. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A fairly broad area of sct moderate to heavy showers is currently moving NE across most of our non-mtn zones. We`ve seen a handful of lightning strikes from this activity in the vicinity of our Upstate terminals over the past few hrs, but with instability diminishing going forward, we`ll likely only see showers for the rest of tonight/overnight. Otherwise, most of this precip activity should also move east of our fcst area over the next few hrs as the plume of deeper moisture moves east. Most of the near- term guidance continues to spread low clouds/IFR cigs across most of our area by midnight or so and keeps them in place into the early afternoon. There`s also a decent chance that at least the Upstate sites will see LIFR cigs overnight and into the morning. The mtns appear more likely to remain in the MVFR range, but there`s still a decent chance that KAVL will see IFR cigs thru the morning hrs. Otherwise, the main line of showers and thunderstorms is progged to move thru our fcst area during the afternoon and should be east of KCLT by roughly 23z. As such, I have a 3 to 4 hour window of prevailing SHRA with a TEMPO for TSRA for most terminals with some lingering VCSH to end the taf period. Winds will remain SLY into the morning and gradually become more SSW and then SW (with low-end gusts) as the day wears on and the main front moves thru. Outlook: Drying is expected on Tuesday. Some sct showers and their associated restrictions will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...JPT/PM SHORT TERM...CAC LONG TERM...CAC AVIATION...JPT